ISIS can get more aggressive as it gets more stuck and do more harm to people and countries nearby.

By Mete Çubukçu

Translation: Biray Anıl Birer

As the most important reasons for ISIS’ executions, we can count its major defeat in Kobani, its withdrawal from Iraqi Kurdistan region against Peshmerga, and its effort to consolidate forces after the severe damage that Coalition war planes did. 

The defeat in Kobani demoralized ISIS

It is known that a few thousand ISIS militants died in Kobani, its heavy weapons were destroyed, and moreover, no result was obtained even though the city was heavily attacked. For ISIS, the defeat in Kobani caused military loss, the loss of prestige, and loss of spirits among militants.

The insistence on Kobani and too many casualties caused an intra-organizational dispute. It is even known that intra-organizational executions were made as a consequence.

Loss of strength comes along

So, the resistance in Kobani and the withdrawal of ISIS in Iraqi Kurdistan are milestones for the future of ISIS. Since those two incidents occurred, ISIS has started losing power. Of course, all those strikes don’t mean that the rebel group is finished.

What I have written above are the underlying reasons for the execution of our Japanese colleague and especially of Jordanian pilot, and even the fact that the latter execution was made in a different way for the first time. ISIS needs to be talked about again; it is trying to refresh its image and power based on terrorizing people, and to recapture the area and spirit it has lost both intra-organizationally and worldwide. Also, it seems that the more area ISIS will lose, the more dangerous it will be. 

Propaganda with execution

Especially the execution of captured Jordanian pilot in a different method is a propaganda showing off the group’s power because of the recent blows it has received, as well as a menace to the nearby countries for their support for the Coalition (UAE withdrew from the Coalition). 

We should keep Turkey in mind when we talk about ISIS’ neighboring countries. ISIS had a reason for insisting on Kobani. The group was going to capture Kobani and be done with the East-West line on the Turkish-Syrian border; and ISIS was going to arrive at the Turkish border from the central region to the north in Syria. So, the group was going to add Kobani to all the spots it had on the Turkish-Syrian border. It didn’t happen.

If Kobani, a strategically important spot, had fallen into the hands of ISIS, the group would have established control over a very long line on the Turkish-Syrian border. Did Turkey really underestimate the seriousness of that situation or was it just an impression? No comment.

The threat is not over

In the end, we were under the impression that ISIS had been kicked away not out of Turkey’s own initiative.  However, all of these don’t indicate that ISIS threat is over. There are already various versions of ISIS in the regions near the Turkish-Syrian border; the difference lies in their methods. 

For example, we have been receiving news that ISIS is withdrawing from the countryside of Aleppo. No doubt that Al-Nusra Front will fill the gap ISIS would leave.

Look out for Jordan

Having lost its grip in Kobani, ISIS is still on the Turkish-Syrian border. On the other hand, the group is trying to play out of its skin in Lebanon, Jordan, and Sinai region in Egypt.

The execution of Jordanian pilot is also a start of show of force in Jordan, because Jordan is one of the best targets for Salafi groups; it can easily be destabilized.

After the group in Egypt’s Sinai region obeyed ISIS, the attacks have increased.

However, let’s not forget ISIS is a group which not only drives itself to the wall, but also makes trouble in the countries it flees to when that happens, especially if the group’s presence in small and large groups is felt in those countries. We all know the Pakistan adventure of the similar structure that had been ignored before. 

What really matters is ISIS mentality

It’s important that Turkey has recently arrested for the first time some foreigners and a Turkish citizen that joined ISIS; even though the situation had an international message.

Even though Turkish people who become ISIS militants and the group’s foreign fighters cross the Turkish-Syrian border more difficultly than before, they still come in and go out. But the real problem is ignoring the formation and spread of the mentality that paves the way for structures such as ISIS and Al Nusra Front. If that is overlooked, it will create serious problems in the future and Turkey is not free from it.

Our knowledge of history and experience suggest all these. Let’s not overlook the possibility of Turkey dealing with ISIS for long years.