‘The New Middle East’ (1) – Syria: Four years later, what we have is a wreck.  

It’s been almost five years since the civil war in Syria started. It’s one of the most terrible wars in recent times.  

From Assad’s ferocity to ISIS’ barbarity, images resembling Dresden after World War II and the tragedy of refugees, all is included in this war. 

It’s everybody’s war 

The USA being in the first place, from many indecisive countries to the ones who only focus on overthrowing or protecting the regime in Syria, almost every country has put its nose into this dirty war.  In its 5th year now, this war is everybody’s war but the Syrians. 

On one hand, we have the Ba’ath regime, Hezbollah, Shia militias, Iran etc. On the other hand, we have ISIS and many radical groups like ISIS or the radicals disguising as moderate depending on the country they get support from, and we have the ones who tolerate and support those groups directly or directly. 

The only thing that doesn’t exist is a united opposition 

The only thing that has not been materialized in four years is a united opposition that can meet on common ground. Nothing left but the name of Free Syrian Army.  

Could we be able to predict four years ago that all of these would happen? 

Maybe not all of it, but some of it, yes. I mean, we knew and said that the Syrian regime would not have surrendered in a few months. 

The ‘stalemate’ situation

After four years, there is a terrible human tragedy and a bloody, dirty war…The groups that are used by the unknown and the rise of denomination with no return… The tolerance for the dismissal of Christians, who are the archaic elements of the Middle East, and of people from other religions... The barbarians named ISIS and the ones that resist them, especially the Kurds etc. 

There is a ‘stalemate’ situation in Syria.

The reason for that is the situation in the area does not let anybody build a new Syria on its own. And it will not. Nothing will come out from either Assad or radical Islamists of various tones, groups such as the Al-Nusra Front, Salafis, Ahrar ash-Sham etc. Nothing can come outanyway, because none of them has the capacity or insight to build a new country. All has to defend the policy of the countries that support them; none of them represents themselves.  An original Syrian opposition is very hard to build from now on. 

The Iraq and Libya experience

It is obvious now that no one will deal with Assad before ISIS being destroyed first. Even though United States Secretary of State John Kerry said “We have to negotiate with Assad” and changed his discourse afterwards, it’s not the case. Though the USA can not sit down at the table personally, it can not run the risk of the organizations in Syria, which are hanging by a thread, to disappear completely.  That is why the issue is not Assad himself but what will happen to the regime and its organizations. They have the Iraq experience behind.  

Moreover, the USA encouraged many countries including Turkey four years ago but now it’s prioritizing the fight against ISIS. The Libya experience lies behind this move. The ones that have seen Libya would not interfere with Syria as it is. 

As you might remember, after “the freedom fighters” in Libya had killed the American ambassador, things had changed. Now there is not even a government in Libya. Libya is also a lost case for Turkey. Whether the USA learns anything from all these is open to question but that is the case.

The situation has changed

The surprising thing is that there are people who live in the past and still think this will be over in a few months.

However, the situation has changed. 

It is asked now ‘Who would have thought that an element like ISIS would appear?”Let’s add one question to this: “who could have thought that the USA and Iran would unite even for strategic reasons?” 

Speeding up the Syrian war would not bring any good to anybody as it is. This terrible war would not end as it is anyway. 

Now it is necessary to make effort to end this war one way or another and to reach consensus. Neither Assad nor the opposition and those who hope to benefit from this war can come through this disastrous situation. The way things are, it will last forever, let alone 4 years.  Statistics and the power balance in the region prove that. 

Yes, this is the ‘New Middle East’ but it includes old plays and tricks. 

Some people don’t know the older version well enough and still can’t understand the ‘New Middle East’.

Translation: Biray Anıl Birer